Come one, come all, to the official preview of the AFC and NFC Championship games.  You can't escape the Giant excitement here in New York.  Listening to sports talk radio, you'd likely hear about 30% of the conversation about the potential San Francisco forecast on Sunday, and the other 70% about how the Giants are about to make mincemeat out of the 49ers.  The confidence is brewing, and the G-Men have certainly backed it up over the last month.  

But before the local game, the AFC Champion will be crowned up in Foxboro.  The Ravens and Patriots are two worthy candidates, and they will settle it all at about 3pm.  Should be real fun, so let's just get down to it...

The Line: Patriots by 7

Former Jets Involved: S. Ellis/J. Ihedigbo/D. Woodhead/B. Belichick (Patriots)

Blog's 2011 Picks Record Against the Spread: Baltimore: 10-6-1   New England: 8-9-0

By playing about 5 trillion times better than they did last week.  Put Tom Brady behind center on the Houston offense last week, and the Ravens would have been blown out of their own building.  Fortunately for Baltimore, rookie T.J. Yates showed he wasn't quite ready for the big time.  They weren't spectacular in any way last week, but the Ravens have certainly been in the NFL's elite in 2011-12.  The defense had yet another stellar campaign, and the offense has done what it's needed to do.  Sure, they had some bizarre losses to some poor teams this season.  But every single time Baltimore has played a team equal-or-better-than them, they have answered the bell.  Every time.  The Ravens know the only way to beat this Patriots team is to make Brady shuffle his feel a little, and also reasonably cover the Gronkowski/Hernandez connection.  They have the personnel to do so, it's just a matter of their execution.  New England's blasting of Tim Tebow and the overmatched Broncos last week answered very little about their defense.  Baltimore isn't exactly the 1999 St. Louis Rams, but they have some weapons.  Houston's masterful defense made it seem like Baltimore was offensively inept...but this Patriots defense isn't anywhere near the level of the Texans.  Keeping Brady uncomfortable should hold the Patriots between 21-27 points...which is pretty much the ceiling for Baltimore's offense.  A complete team effort will be enough to beat the Patriots...the Ravens are not nearly as inferior as they've been portrayed this week.

I gotta say...New England's win last week took away quite a bit of fun.  No more one-and-done crown for Belichick.  No more 'Mr. December' mock-championship for Brady.  No more 'Sanchez 4, Brady 0' mock scoreboard for playoff wins since '09.  I blame Ike Taylor completely for not allowing the Steelers to be a more reasonable opponent last week.  But all good things must come to an end.  The Patriots can win this game because of their unbelievable offensive philosophy and ability.  Everyone on the planet knows how they plan to win, yet they do it anyway.  And they do it with a crappy defense.  Nevertheless, the Pats got a big monkey off their back last week.  But they better have a short memory.  The Ravens are superior to the Broncos in every way, shape, and form.  They have concrete playoff experience, which includes a Foxboro beatdown of New England.  Nobody knows this better than New England.  They ought to have some brand new wrinkles for the Ravens to process.  If things get out of hand early, it seems the Ravens don't even believe in the ability of their quarterback Joe Flacco.  The Patriots have no such doubts with Brady, to say the least.

The Pick: 

It's playoff time, so no one really gives a damn about point spreads.  Which is why I feel grimy writing this pick.  Bottom line, I think that a 7-point spread for this game is astronomically high.  Of course it's a reflection of how amazing New England was last week, combined with how underwhelming Baltimore was.  I think this game is a toss-up, and with that in mind I am firmly cementing my pick of the Ravens (+7).  I know they looked real bad last week, but doesn't Ray Lewis' crazyman dance/pump-up thing work so much better when they're underdogs?  That's enough for me to take the points.  When it comes to actually winning, though...I'm not nearly as confident.  But when I picture myself looking at a final score that has Baltimore winning the game outright...I see myself way more in 'holy sh*t' mode than in 'told ya so' mode.  Baltimore covers, and hopefully do much more.  But I can't go proclaiming it.

The Line: 49ers by 2.5

Former Jets Involved: S. Weatherford/K. McKenzie (Giants)

Blog's Preseason Excerpt About the 49ers (Uh-Oh...)

By just merrily rolling along.  Ever since the 99-yarder-that-shall-not-be-revisited, it's been just peaches and cream for Big Blue.  Especially in the playoffs, where 2-0 was pretty much the biggest deficit they have faced in a game so far.  People still had doubts after Atlanta seemed to no-show the wild card round.  But going on the road to dominate a 15-1 Packer team?  Doubts erased.  They Giants could not have planned a more perfect time for the pass rush to explode, and Matt Ryan/Aaron Rodgers each faced 60 minutes of duress.  Eli Manning has certainly done his part on the offensive side, as Hakeem Nicks/Victor Cruz cannot both be covered.  Sprinkle in some running game, and the Giants are the hottest team going right now.  Is a team with Alex Smith in the most important position really going to stop them?  According to the fans and media this week, that notion seems laughable. 

I don't even deserve the right to type this section.  I have bad-mouthed, mocked, ridiculed, and scoffed at the 49ers all season.  You can see as much in the excerpt above.  Picking mostly against San Fran led to a crappy record when picking them against the spread.  Sure enough, I doubted them at home against the Saints.  So simply put, the 49ers can win because they are in incredibly tight-knit football team that knows exactly what they do well.  They have a coach putting together perhaps the greatest rookie campaign in history.  They have a dominant defensive front, a great running game, and a quarterback that seems to be fueled by his doubters (and there's still barrels of barrels of fuel in his back-stock.)  You have to think the Giants will eliminate Vernon Davis from this game by any means necessary--he completely wrecked New Orleans last week.  So it will be on Michael Crabtree & co to step up and help Frank Gore.  The defense pounded the Saints into turnovers and shut them down for 55 minutes last week.  The Saints have a better offense than the Giants.  It's not rocket science as far as what the Niners are capable of.  As much as Big Blue has looked like a team of destiny for the past month, San Fran has now looked like a team of destiny for over four months.

It's a shame one of these teams has to lose this weekend.  I would want both these teams go to the Super Bowl rather than one of those AFC guys.  Nevertheless, one of these teams is going home Sunday night no matter what.  As loco as it may be, I'm going with the California dreamers.  If you stack the two teams up, the Giants are probably the better team by a hair.  I've rode Big Blue through the playoff picks section, and they have not let me down.  But there seems to be something else in play here.  One reason I didn't think the Packers would reach the Super Bowl is because everything seemed so...easy for them.  Now I'm not suggesting things have been easy for the Giants.  They needed to make their own luck in the final month, and they certainly answered the bell.  But this in a 9-7 team that ceased their home game against the Falcons and went to Green Bay with no trouble either.  In response, the fans couldn't be more confident.  I don't blame them, but I don't think they're taking the Niners seriously whatsoever.  There's a reason the 49ers are favored in the game (they're home.)  And as much as the on-field tangibles seem to favor the Giants, everything else points toward the Niners.  In a game this close, that's good enough for me.  I sincerely, sincerely apologize to the blog readers that are 49ers fans, who have enjoyed so much success with me picking against their team.  I wasn't there for the wedding against New Orleans, but I don't envision a funeral at the hands of the Giants.  Alex Smith, Super Bowl-bound.  No matter how painful that sentence was to type....oh dear.

Enjoy the games, everyone!