Monday Mash: Three Favorites...and a Tebow
The perfect storm was brewing.
Saturday football was a bit of a bust. In the 'only people outside of Cincy and Houston who care are gamblers' matchup, the Texans were able to pull away from the Bengals. Sure, the game was a bit more competitive early on than the 31-10 score indicated. And J.J. Watt made a ridiculously athletic play to swing the game. But in the end, 31-10 speaks for itself as Houston was just plain superior.
After that came the shootout in New Orleans. Both for picking reasons and rooting interest, I was on Detroit for the upset. For the life of me, I don't know how they didn't cover. The first half could not have gone any better. 7-0 at the end of the first (that's 17.5-0 in Vegas terms) and the Lions looked even more unstoppable on offense than the Saints! Maybe they wouldn't win, but the cover looked to be in the bag. Sure, New Orleans scored right away in the second quarter to tie it up. But when the Lions responded right back with an 87-yard drive, I thought it was going to be Detroit's night. When Brees fumbled right after that, I was legitimately thinking about how much the Giants would love to go to San Fran instead of Green Bay, and how the Lions were about to make this dream a reality.
Silly me.
Of course the Saints would allow me to get ahead of myself. I was already declaring the game over when it's just 14-7 in the first half?? These are the things that happen when over-excitement kicks in during the playoffs. Because New Orleans kicked a field goal to make it 14-10 at the half, and that was the last field goal they'd have all game (and not in a good way for Detroit.) Six second half possessions for the Saints- Touchdown, Touchdown, Touchdown, Touchdown, Touchdown, QB kneels. How did I not see it coming? Stafford was admirable in his attempts to keep up (and the Lions were flirting with the +10.5 cover all they way til the very end.) But turnovers are inevitable in that situation, and the Saints defense came through in that department. A 14-10 Detroit lead turned into a 45-28 Detroit loss. Only in N'orleans...
SO....two Saturday games, two pretty much-snoozers. Surely the Giants-Falcons matchup would pick up the burden of wildcard excitement. It seemed to be the most even matchup heading into the weekend. The first playoff game in MetLife Stadium, the Falcons looking to avenge playoff heartaches in the Matt Ryan era, Giants having the 'it' factor, etc. Everything was shaping up nicely.
Fast forward to the second quarter with a score of....2-0 Atlanta? 2-0? Even with the trivial score, it seemed the Giants' potential to bust loose was infinitely higher than the Falcons. It's tough to say whether or not it was due to his woeful college experience, but Matt Ryan came up small yet again in the big spot. The Giants pass rush must be credited for wreaking havoc all day. But Michael Turner wasn't doing anything to bail out his quarterback, as he was swallowed up run after run. After the safety, Eli had no such issues in the pocket. Hakeem Nicks reminded everyone that Victor Cruz's success in recent weeks had a little something to do with opposing defenses spotlighting Nicks. Once Hakeem faced some single coverage of his own...6 catches/115 yards/2 TD speaks for itself.
Truth be told, the game was all-but over when it was 10-2. The Falcon offense was just that inept. And when Atlanta was actually able to manifest a drive or two, it all went to hell with some bizarre 4th down failures. The Giants front seven was possessed. The scariest part of the day was Jason Pierre Paul's apparent injury. But he seemed to be fine afterwards. Lord knows the Giants will need him as well as everyone else on defense to be at full strength next week in Green Bay.
SOOOOO...Three playoff games, three favorites winning by 2+ touchdowns. I don't want to say that I had completely changed my pick in the Denver/Pittsburgh game. I just believed that wildcard weekend owed us a little bit of wildness. Tim Tebow came through with one of the wildest playoff outcomes in playoff history.
Obligatory disclaimer: Pittsburgh was woefully banged up on both sides of the ball. Ben Roethlisberger was obviously hurt a lot more than people thought, and in the first half I was realistically wondering if he was the quarterback that gave the team the best chance to win. After injuries to Hampton and Keisel, I was playfully referring to the Steelers as the JV-eelers. They were hobbled, and likely would have won the game if Ben were at full strength and the defensive guys were there. Fair? Fair.
Now...jeez louise. I predicted a 17-3 win for Pittsburgh. When halftime came and it was 17-6 Denver, I was far too confused to feel stupid about my pick. 20 points in the second half alone. Tebow lofting passes like he's John Elway, and running like he's Steve McNair. All in all, Timmy completed ten passes. For 316 yards. Yes, math majors, that would be 31.6 yards per every pass completion.
Tebow was great, McGahee ran well despite his terrible fumble. But the best player for Denver may have been Pittsburgh defensive back Ike Taylor. Demaryius Thomas had a modest four catches for a preposterous 204 yards and the overtime touchdown that shocked the world. Denver's best receiver is actually Eric Decker, who was injured early in this game and became a non-factor. After that injury, there is no fathomable reason for Denver to beat Pittsburgh through the air in this game. All I can imagine is that the esteemed, proud Steeler defense didn't think Tebow could beat them throwing the ball, and were too stubborn to change things when he was doing just that. If it were a Madden game, it was like the Steelers were choosing 'goal line' formation every play. Denver put up a modest 3.9 yards per rush in the game. Once overtime comes, don't you keep maybe one guy in centerfield to prevent a disaster? Didn't this said disaster look inevitable when Taylor kept getting roasted? Sure enough, overtime was over almost before it began.
Isaac Redman and the crippled Roethlisberger certainly had nothing to hand their heads about in this game. Ben's receivers dropped multiple balls, the Steeler defense was shellshocked, and Denver really just had a perfect storm. Give the Broncos credit. Probably about 90% of the nation outside of Denver thought Pittsburgh was winning the game when Cotchery hauled in that touchdown. The Broncos were robbed on that 'backwards-pass-that-wasn't.' McGahee's fumble was such a gut punch. Sure the Steelers were playing a whole lot of backups, but Denver deserved what they achieved yesterday. Dopes like me thought the Steelers' third stringers could pull out that game. To be fair, the Broncos played exponentially better yesterday than they did the previous several weeks. And they will have to be exponentially-better than their exponentially-better performance to stand any chance in New England.
The Montauk BeverageWorks Delicious Performance of the Week:
Drew Brees, Saints. No contest. Calvin Johnson and Demaryius Thomas had historic days catching the ball. And Arian Foster made Cincy tap-out all game. But in a regular season of dominant quarterbacking, the playoffs saw much of the same. 466 yards and three touchdowns as the Saints put away the Lions. It won't be so easy on the road in San Francisco. At least the 49ers hope it's not...
- A quick look ahead to next week. Understandably, the Saints are the only road favorite. San Francisco is currently a 3.5 'dog in their own building- the lowest spread of the week. The other three margins have some meat on them. Baltimore is 7.5 points favored over Houston. Green Bay is giving away 8 to the Giants. And Tebow & Co. are looking at a 13.5 point spread in New England. Texans-Ravens may not shake the football world, but the other 3 matchups will sure be fun. Preview will come later in the week.
- National Championship of college football tonight. For what it's worth, give me Alabama (-2.5) over Louisiana State in the big game. I was wrong last time about this game, and believe it's woefully unfair that 'Bama gets to play. As much as I'm rooting for the Honey Badger and the rest of the Tigers to pull it out, I see too much Saban, too much Richardson, and not nearly as much missed field goals for the Tide. Call it Alabama 17, LSU 9.



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