Ho! Ho! Ho-liday Picks (Week 16)

'Twas the day before Christmas, and all through the league.
Teams were fighting for the playoffs, and fighting fatigue.
The day is put on hold for the fans that really care.
With hopes that next week their team will still be there.
Fans of this blog are nestled and snug on their couch,
Hoping for a good week of picks, and that I stop being a slouch...

-Author Unknown

Building off that ancient poem, it's time to kick things into high gear.  Living in the tri-state area, you'd have to a football Scrooge/Grinch not to know about the big game this week.  The Jets-Giants matchup will ensure that some of New York will wake up tomorrow with an invisible gift of victory already secured under the tree, while the other will feel like they got a healthy dose of coal from Football Santa.

Of course, there is oh-so-much more going on in football today outside of Metlife Stadium, too.  With just two weeks left in the regular season, there is a ridiculously-high 21 teams still mathematically alive for the playoffs.  Seven teams have already secured postseason spots, meaning that 14 teams will fight it out for the final 5 spots (the Jets and Giants being two warriors in the battle.)

All in all, it should be a real fun day of football, providing plenty of trash-talk fodder for tomorrow's family festivities.  Today marks the first time me and my dad are cheering vehemently for opposing teams since....I don't even know when.  Nothing rips families apart on Christmas Eve quite like the NY football rivalry!  No matter who you're rooting for, enjoy it.  On to the picks, home team is in bold.

Chiefs (-2.5) over Raiders
Good God, Oakland.  This division was on a silver (bells!) platter for the Raiders.  Before Tebow took over the nation, Oakland was rolling along and looked like the lone decent team in the West.  A three game losing streak, lowlighted by last week's abominable (snowman!) performance against the Lions.  Kansas City had given their fans very little to cheer about in 2011, and fired their coach as a result.  But boy did they make up for it last week, as they de-perfected the Packers in stunning fashion.  Blog favorite Kyle Orton has breathed some new life, and as comically as it sounds, the 6-8 Chiefs are still in contention for the division.  These are two teams going opposite ways, and KC is on the upswing.

Broncos (-2.5) over Bills
Denver fans will enjoy a football game today before celebrating their quarterback's supposed-birthday tomorrow.  Buffalo has lost seven games in a row, and the Broncos are traveling a long way....can it be a Tewbowmas Eve trap game?  I don't see it.  Denver will be hungry after being humbled by New England.  They will be scoreboard watching because if the Chiefs indeed dispose of the Raiders, the Tim Tebow-led Denver Broncos will clinch their division and a home playoff game.  Wowzers.

Titans (-7.5) over Jaguars
Tennessee...what are you doing??  A ghastly loss to previously-winless Indy last week dug the Titans in all sorts of holes.  Luckily for them, the Jaguars on the road may be the easiest win in the NFL this season.  Tennessee is desperate and Blaine Gabbert is a little drummer boy that's lost his drumsticks.  

Cardinals (+4.5) over Bengals
This is a pride pick more than anything else.  I picked Arizona to win their division once upon a time, and they had my face as rosy-red as Santa's within weeks.  But to their credit, they're finishing this season up strong.  They're 7-7, have won 4 in a row, and are still mathematically alive.  That's not to say Cincy doesn't need this game, as they are right in the thick of the wild card race.  I have no idea who is going to win this one, making 4.5 points that much more merry.

Patriots (-9) over Dolphins
Humbug.  King Herod and his minions are aiming for the all-important bye, and will pursue homefield advantage next week.

Browns (+12.5) over Ravens
The reason for the high spread is two fold.  First, Cleveland quarterback Colt McCoy got his brains scrambled so hard, he thinks he's back in 3rd grade and is writing a letter to Santa today.  Backup quarterbacks on the road against the Baltimore defense are difficult to trust.  Second, the Ravens need this game very badly in terms of winning the division and earning a bye--they will be in no mood to screw around.  But the X-Factor is in play here: We've all seen a rejuvenation of Madden '12 commercials in the holiday season.  I see that game's coverboy Peyton Hillis putting on a 'vintage' 2010 performance.  He will keep it within reason, with a sprinkle of Seneca Wallace's scrambling ability.

Redskins (-6.5) over Vikings
With nothing to play for last week, Washington sure put a cog in the Giants' playoff plans.  Though they can't make the playoffs, the 'Skins can still finish just one game out of the division title if they close out the year on fire.  On the road, we must think Minnesota will be more than accommodating.  Indy's mini-win streak has thrusted the Vikings right back into the Andrew Luck discussion.  I'm not suggesting a tank-job.  But why the heck would they go balls-to-the-wall in this one?  Santana Claus is coming to town.

Panthers (-7.5) over Bucs
Cam-ta Claus is coming to town, too!

Rams (+12.5) over Steelers
The two starting quarterbacks in this game are likely to be Charlie Batch and Kellen Clemens.  Is one of these players 12.5 points crappier than the other?  The Rams have lost 5 in a row, and for the entire season has been outscored by 180 points.  Um...maybe they're due?

Chargers (+2) over Lions  
I'm riding (a one horse open sleigh!) Phil Rivers until he instructs me not to.  Unless want to puff out your chest over a 49-35 win against Carolina, Detroit really hasn't played impressive football since October.  But this pick does not come without risk.  The Chargers play this game at 4pm...if the Broncos win at 1pm, there can be some serious morale deflation.  San Diego's probably not going to the playoffs anyway, but it should be noted.

Eagles (+1) over Cowboys 
Last week against the Jets.  Many weeks ago in the first matchup with Dallas.  Maybe the Eagles just love playing the Ryan brothers.  Although the Jets stunk up the joint last week, I don't think anyone was beating the Eagles the way they played.  At least that's what I'm telling myself.  That being said, Philly has no reason for a letdown, especially if their fellow team in green takes out the Giants.

Bears (+11.5) over Packers
Just a hunch.   And a hope that the lone game on Christmas will actually be close.

Saints (-7) over Falcons
Lock of the week, (Santa) baby!  I never like Atlanta, and New Orleans is a machine in their own dome.  The Falcons aren't winning the division, and aren't getting knocked outta their wild card spot.  A loss does virtually nothing, while a win for New Orleans will be instrumental to getting a playoff bye.  Brees won't let the opportunity slip.

Upset Perfiction of the Week
Seahawks (+1.5) over 49ers
The low spread indicates that this is a cop-out upset pick.  But come one, a 7-7 team over an 11-3 team should be nothing to sneeze at.  Truth be told, I'm spotlighting this game because I really wanted to draw attention to this video.  You don't have to watch all 3+ minutes...just know that 0:36-0:46 is my Christmas gift to you, my readers.  San Fran hasn't allowed a rushing touchdown all season.  Unfortunately for them, they were facing normal humans in the right state of mind.  TWO touchdowns for Marshawn, with the raucous Seattle crowd showering Skittles from above.  Seahawks 17, 49ers 9

Battle of New York
Jets (-3) over Giants
This is a homer pick on the surface.  But for those questioning my always-fleeting integrity, please know that I would very likely have picked the Giants if they had Ballard, Manningham, and others.  But I just see the Jets defense finally showing up when they need it.  If Revis and Cromartie hold their own against Nicks and Cruz, I just don't know how the Giants move the ball.  Sure, that Bills game can answer that question adequately.  But much is being made over both teams pretty much sucking last week.  As I said before, I don't think anyone could have matched up to that Eagles freight train.  The Giants loss...at home....to the Redskins....just seems a lot less defensible.  Sanchez, Shonn, Santonio, Shooter, Santa.  Five S's=On Gang Green victory on Christmas Eve.  Jets 21, Giants 13

Thanks VERY much for reading.  Have the most magical of holiday weekends!
  


 

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