Handicapping the Anaheim Derby

Well folks, tonight is one of my favorite events of the baseball season.  The home run derby may be quite simple (a swing is either a home run or an out--no exceptions.)  But in this case, simplicity is bliss.  Along with chicks, I happen to dig the long ball.  I don't care that the pitches are being lobbed right down the middle.  I don't care that some paranoid farts think that the derby messes up players' swings.  The home run derby is the highlight of my All Star Weekend, and I don't expect tonight to disappoint.  So without further ado, let's meet tonight's derby participants.

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Miguel Cabrera, Tigers
2010 Home Runs: 22 (Tied for 2nd in ML

Most Homers in Career
: 37 (in 2008)

Las Vegas Odds to Win:
2.3-1

Derby Outlook
: Definitely one of the heavy favorites in Anaheim.  Cabrera has been a masher ever since coming up with the Marlins.  A complete hitter, he leads all of baseball with his ridiculous .336 batting average.  A triple crown is certainly within reach for Cabrera in 2010.  Barring a somewhat-epic choke, he should make it to at least the final round tonight.


David Ortiz, Red Sox
2010 Home Runs: 18 (Tied for 14th in ML

Most Homers in Career: 54 (in 2006)

Las Vegas Odds to Win: 4.5-1

Derby Outlook: The 2010 season has been a roller coaster for Big Papi.  He had all of one home run in the month of April, sparking the now-annual 'Is Ortiz done?' conversation.  But the man caught fire in May and hasn't looked back.  Due to his infectious personality and...circular physique, Big Papi is definitely the most popular participant tonight.  He's been socking dingers for far longer than anyone else tonight, and an Ortiz victory wouldn't shock many people.


Nick Swisher, Yankees
2010 Home Runs: 15 (Tied for 31st in ML

Most Homers in Career: 35 (in 2006)

Las Vegas Odds to Win: 6.5-1

Derby Outlook: After starting out with two favorites, we now move to a big-time darkhorse in tonight's competition.  Swisher was named as a late replacement for the injured Robinson Cano.  Nobody is expecting much out of 'Swish' but the lightning-in-a-bottle potential is definitely there.  Being a Yankee, he will most likely be booed viciously by the Angel fans of Anaheim.  But at the heart of things, Swisher is one of the more fun-loving, likable guys in the league and he may connect with the casual fans tonight.  That said, getting out of the first round would be a rousing success for him.


Vernon Wells, Blue Jays
2010 Home Runs: 19 (Tied for 12th in ML

Most Homers in Career: 33 (in 2003)

Las Vegas Odds to Win: 7-1

Derby Outlook
: Before the season, if you told baseball fans that Vernon Wells would be participating in the 2010 Home Run Derby, everyone would have assumed it would be during the minor-league all star weekend.  Once one of the game's most underrated, fearsome hitters, Wells' career took a turn for the toilet in 2007.  There was 'on the decline,' there was 'washed up,' and then there was 2007-2009 Vernon Wells.  When he went homer-crazy in the season's first month, everyone thought it was a flash in the pan.  Months later, it is clear that Wells has gotten his game back up to an elite level.  Sure he plays in Toronto and nobody expects him to win tonight, but just being in this competition is a huge vindication for Vernon.


NATIONAL LEAGUE

Corey Hart, Brewers
2010 Home Runs: 21 (Tied for 6th in ML

Most Homers in Career: 24 (in 2007)

Las Vegas Odds to Win: 5.5-1

Derby Outlook: How do I put this...Corey Hart just looks like a dork.  He's preposterously skinny and lanky.  He showed promise of superstardom early in his career, but just hasn't quite gotten over the hump.  Now 28 years old, Hart is about to shatter his career high in home runs and may finally fulfill what Milwaukee fans have waited so long for.  His natural power is not on the same level as the other guys in this contest, but to totally dismiss his chances would be a mistake.


Matt Holliday, Cardinals
2010 Home Runs: 16 (Tied for 25th in ML

Most Homers in Career:
36 (in 2007)

Las Vegas Odds to Win:
3.25-1

Derby Outlook:
Chris Bianchi's life partner has been on quite a roll after a slow start.  He had only five homers at the end of May, but has crushed 11 in the month and a half since then.  Skeptics say that his career high of 36 home runs in 2007 may have been caused by that light Colorado air, but his 2010 campaign is starting to silence those doubters.  Las Vegas certainly wouldn't be shocked by a Holliday victory tonight, and neither would I.  Just get Bianchi a new diaper if he does end up winning.


Hanley Ramirez, Marlins 
2010 Home Runs: 13 (Tied for 49th in ML

Most Homers in Career:
33 (in 2008)

Las Vegas Odds to Win:
7.5-1

Derby Outlook:
For this most part, 2010 has been nothing to write home about for Ramirez.  Relatively speaking, his numbers have dipped and he's been most known for his jogging stunt that pissed off his team and ultimately led to the firing of his manager.  But as every fan knows, Hanley has the talent to be a top-3 player in all the league.  He is the rare all-power player that is also blessed with all-world speed.  His meek home run total may drive people off the scent, but I'm expecting big things out of Ramirez tonight.


Chris Young, Diamondbacks
2010 Home Runs: 15 (Tied for 31st in ML

Most Homers in Career: 32 (in 2007)

Las Vegas Odds to Win: 8-1

Derby Outlook: We've talked about some dark horses among tonight's participants (Swisher, Hart, etc.)  If those guys are the dark horses, I don't even know what to call Young.  The casual fans will be hearing of him for the first time tonight.  Since a spectacular rookie season, Young's career has been all downhill.  It's hard to believe he's just 26 years old.  His best days are likely still ahead of him, and he can put himself on the map in a big way on tonight's national stage.


DRUMROLL PLEASE........................


WINNER: HANLEY RAMIREZ
RUNNER UP: DAVID ORTIZ

Thanks for reading, everyone.

 

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